A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
